Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed Robinhood’s stock rating as the platform jumps 7.9% on April 14, 2026, citing valuation metrics that outpace historic lows. Learn the data, history, and what’s next for investors.
- Robinhood FY2025 revenue: $1.95 billion (SEC, 2025)
- Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Michael Gorman: “Valuation remains compelling given user growth and margin expansion” (Cantor, Apr 2026)
- Economic impact: $3.2 billion in net commissions generated for U.S. broker‑dealers last year (FINRA, 2025)
Robinhood Markets Inc. shares surged 7.99% on April 14, 2026, after Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its "buy" rating, emphasizing that the stock’s price‑to‑sales multiple remains below its 2022 peak (Cantor Fitzgerald, April 14, 2026). The broker‑dealer argues the valuation gap signals upside despite a broader market pullback.
Why does Cantor Fitzgerald still see value in Robinhood’s stock?
Cantor’s analysts point to three core data points: (1) Robinhood’s FY2025 revenue of $1.95 billion, a 22% year‑over‑year increase (SEC filings, 2025) versus a 2019 revenue of $1.0 billion, (2) a price‑to‑sales ratio of 4.2×, the lowest since the post‑COVID slump of 2020 (FactSet, 2026), and (3) a user base of 28 million active accounts, up from 12 million in 2019 (Robinhood, 2026). The Federal Reserve’s recent rate‑cut pause has kept borrowing costs steady, allowing retail investors to keep trading volume high, especially in New York’s bustling fintech corridor. Historically, Robinhood’s valuation was considered stretched in 2021 when the P/S ratio hit 10.5×, a level not seen since the dot‑com bubble peak of 2000 (Bloomberg, 2022). The current “then vs now” contrast underscores a re‑pricing that Cantor believes is justified by improving fundamentals.
- Robinhood FY2025 revenue: $1.95 billion (SEC, 2025)
- Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Michael Gorman: “Valuation remains compelling given user growth and margin expansion” (Cantor, Apr 2026)
- Economic impact: $3.2 billion in net commissions generated for U.S. broker‑dealers last year (FINRA, 2025)
- Historic comparison: FY2019 revenue $1.0 billion vs FY2025 $1.95 billion – a 95% increase over six years (Robinhood, 2026)
- Counterintuitive angle: While crypto trading volumes fell 12% YoY, cash‑based brokerage revenue rose 18%, offsetting the dip (CoinDesk, 2026)
- Expert watchlist: SEC’s upcoming rule on “payment for order flow” slated for Q3 2026 (SEC, 2026)
- Regional impact: Chicago’s trading floor firms reported a 6% rise in Robinhood‑driven order flow since Jan 2026 (CME Group, 2026)
- Leading indicator: Daily active users (DAU) surpassing 1.1 million, a 15% jump from Q4 2025 (App Annie, 2026)
How has Robinhood’s valuation trended over the past five years?
From its 2020 IPO price of $38, Robinhood’s market cap climbed to $38 billion in early 2022 before retreating to $23 billion in late 2023 amid crypto turbulence. The P/S multiple fell from a high of 10.5× in 2021 to 4.2× in April 2026, marking a 60% contraction in valuation pressure. The three‑year arc (2023‑2025) shows a consistent narrowing of the discount to peers such as Charles Schwab (P/S 5.1×) and Interactive Brokers (P/S 4.8×) (S&P Capital IQ, 2026). A notable inflection point occurred in Q2 2024 when Robinhood introduced AI‑driven trade recommendations, boosting average revenue per user (ARPU) by 14% YoY (McKinsey, 2024).
Most analysts overlook that Robinhood’s margin expansion stems not from higher fees but from a 30% reduction in infrastructure spend after moving data centers to the Midwest, saving roughly $120 million annually.
What the Data Shows: Current vs. Historical Valuation
The decisive figure is Robinhood’s current price‑to‑sales ratio of 4.2× (Cantor Fitzgerald, 2026) versus 10.5× in 2021 (Bloomberg, 2022). This compression reflects both a market correction and genuine earnings improvement: operating margin rose from 4.3% in 2020 to 9.1% in 2025 (Robinhood, 2026). Over the past decade, the average fintech P/S multiple has hovered around 6.8× (S&P Global, 2025), indicating that Robinhood is now priced below the sector average for the first time since 2018. The trajectory suggests a potential re‑rating upside of 12‑15% if user growth sustains its 20% YoY pace.
Impact on United States: By the Numbers
Robinhood’s growth directly affects U.S. retail investors: the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 42% of households in the United States now own at least one fractional share, up from 28% in 2019 (BLS, 2025). In New York City, the platform processes roughly $2.3 billion in daily trade volume, supporting over 4,500 brokerage‑related jobs (NY Fed, 2026). The SEC projects that the “payment for order flow” model could generate an additional $250 million in compliance costs for firms like Robinhood over the next two years (SEC, 2026). Compared to the 2015 baseline, when Robinhood’s US‑based user base was under 5 million, the platform now reaches more than five times that number, reshaping the retail trading landscape.
Expert Voices and What Institutions Are Saying
Michael Gorman, senior equity analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, argues the stock is “undervalued relative to earnings potential and user expansion.” Conversely, Susan Lee, fintech strategist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, cautions that “regulatory headwinds around crypto and order‑flow transparency could compress multiples again.” The SEC’s upcoming rule change, expected in Q3 2026, is seen by Bloomberg Intelligence as a “moderate risk” that could shave 5‑7% off Robinhood’s market cap if firms must disclose more granular PFOF data. Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce’s 2025 report on digital finance adoption highlights Robinhood as a key driver of the $45 billion fintech contribution to U.S. GDP.
What Happens Next: Scenarios and What to Watch
Base case (70% probability): Robinhood sustains 20% YoY user growth, margins rise to 11% by 2027, and the stock trades at a 5.5× P/S multiple, delivering a 12% upside over the next 12 months (Morgan Stanley, 2026). Upside case (15% probability): A favorable SEC ruling on payment for order flow boosts net revenue by 8%, pushing the P/S to 6.0× and a 25% stock rally by mid‑2027. Risk case (15% probability): Tightening crypto regulations cut crypto‑related revenue by 15% and trigger a 10% decline in stock price, reverting the P/S to 3.8×. Key indicators to monitor include: (1) SEC rule finalization timeline (Q3 2026), (2) quarterly active user growth (target >15% QoQ), and (3) margin expansion trends reported in Robinhood’s Q2 2026 earnings. Given the data, the most likely trajectory is modest upside as the valuation gap narrows while regulatory risk remains contained.
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