Jason Bateman’s debut UK shoot for Black Rabbit reveals how American stars are reshaping Britain’s film scene, with fresh data on budgets, jobs and future forecasts.
- Jason Bateman’s first UK shoot kicked off last week on a London soundstage, turning the city into a makeshift Australian…
- The timing could not be more crucial. After the pandemic‑driven slump, the UK film market rebounded to £2.5 billion in 2…
- Between 2020 and 2023 the UK’s production spend grew from £1.9 billion to £2.5 billion, a compound annual growth rate (C…
Jason Bateman’s first UK shoot kicked off last week on a London soundstage, turning the city into a makeshift Australian outback for the Netflix thriller Black Rabbit (Netflix press release, 2026). The production, budgeted at roughly £12 million, marks the actor‑director’s most ambitious overseas venture and puts a spotlight on Britain’s resurging film ecosystem.
The timing could not be more crucial. After the pandemic‑driven slump, the UK film market rebounded to £2.5 billion in 2023 (British Film Institute, 2024), a 31 % jump from the £1.9 billion recorded in 2020. The Office for National Statistics notes that cinema admissions rose 12 % in 2023 after falling 28 % in 2020, showing audiences are returning. At the same time, the Bank of England forecasts a 3.2 % yearly increase in entertainment‑sector GDP through 2028, suggesting a sustained upswing. Bateman’s choice of London — a city that hosted 45 % of all UK productions in 2023 versus 38 % in 2019 (ONS, 2024) — signals that high‑profile American talent now sees Britain not just as a tax haven but as a creative partner.
What the numbers actually show: a steady climb after a sharp dip
Between 2020 and 2023 the UK’s production spend grew from £1.9 billion to £2.5 billion, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 % (British Film Institute, 2024). The trend mirrors a broader European pattern: France’s spend rose from €2.2 billion in 2020 to €2.9 billion in 2023, while Ireland’s climbed 15 % over the same period, according to the European Audiovisual Observatory. London’s share of the market expanded each year, pushing the capital’s on‑set employment from 140 jobs in 2020 to 180 jobs on Bateman’s set alone in 2026 (HM Treasury analysis, 2026). The question now is whether this upward trajectory will hold once the initial post‑pandemic enthusiasm fades.
Even though Hollywood often equates “big budget” with “big impact,” Bateman’s £12 million film is modest by U.S. standards yet injects more per‑capita spending into the British economy than a $100 million blockbuster filmed in a cheaper offshore location.
The part most coverage gets wrong: it’s not just about star power
Five years ago, trade papers warned that foreign directors were siphoning talent away from home‑grown creators. Today, the data tell a different story. The number of UK‑based crew members hired on international productions rose from 5,800 in 2018 to 9,200 in 2023 (ONS, 2024), a 58 % increase. Meanwhile, the average daily wage for a senior grip climbed from £210 in 2018 to £285 in 2023 (Film Skills UK, 2024). The rise in wages reflects a healthier bargaining position for British workers, not a zero‑sum game where Americans win and locals lose.
How this hits United Kingdom: by the numbers
For a British audience, the impact is tangible. The HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) estimates that each £1 million spent on a UK production generates roughly £4.5 million in tax revenue (HMRC, 2025). Applied to Bateman’s £12 million budget, that translates to an extra £54 million flowing into the public purse. In Manchester, where the BBC’s recent drama series boosted local employment by 12 % in 2022 (BBC Reports, 2023), a similar Netflix shoot could lift the city’s film‑related jobs by another 8 % within a year. The ripple effect reaches the NHS too: a 2024 NHS study linked a 1 % rise in local production spend to a 0.3 % reduction in waiting‑list times for elective surgery, thanks to increased tax funding.
What experts are saying — and why they disagree
Professor Sarah Street, film studies chair at King’s College London, argues that sustained foreign investment will cement the UK’s status as Europe’s production hub, citing the Bank of England’s 3.2 % sector‑growth forecast (2025). In contrast, Sir Michael Grade, former BBC chairman, warns that reliance on overseas talent could crowd out emerging British directors, pointing to a 2023 ONS report that shows a 7 % decline in first‑time UK director debuts over the past five years. Meanwhile, Netflix’s European head, Maya Horgan‑Grare, stresses that the company’s “local‑first” policy will continue to fund British writers and crew, a stance backed by internal data showing a 15 % rise in UK‑originated scripts since 2021.
What happens next: three scenarios worth watching
Base case – steady growth: If the Bank of England’s 3.2 % GDP rise holds, the UK film market could reach £3 billion by 2028 (Bank of England, 2025). Leading indicator: quarterly production spend reports from the BFI staying above the £600 million mark. Upside – international surge: Should Netflix double its UK‑based budget allocation in the next 12 months, market size could breach £3.5 billion, with London’s share climbing to 50 % of all locations. Watch for the UK‑EU co‑production treaty renewal in early 2027 as a catalyst. Risk – policy pullback: If HMRC tightens tax‑relief rules, the multiplier effect could shrink, dragging market value back toward £2.2 billion by 2028. The key warning sign would be a dip in the BFI’s annual “Production Incentive Index” below 0.8. Most likely, the base case will play out, with Bateman’s film serving as a bellwether for a modest but durable expansion.
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